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28

Routes by which lead is

absorbed by humans and its

fate in the body

Inorganic lead can, to some extent, be absorbed through the

skin, but primarily enters the bloodstream following ingestion of

contaminateddust,paintfragments,foodandwaterorinhalation

of dust. The primary route of exposure to lead in Europe is in the

diet (EFSA 2010). The amount and rate of absorption of ingested

lead depends on the individual (age, nutritional status

etc.

)

and the physical and chemical characteristics of the material

ingested. Children absorb proportionately more ingested lead

than adults. Once absorbed, lead is transported around the

body in the bloodstream. It is excreted primarily in faeces and

urine, but is also incorporated into hair and lost when hair is

shed. Lead is also transferred from the blood to soft tissues such

as the liver and kidneys and to bone where it accumulates. The

half-life of lead in blood is about 30 days, but in bone it is several

decades, although a labile compartment exists (USASTDR 2007).

Hence, lead is accumulated in the body over the lifetime of an

individual, primarily in bone, and lost only slowly. About 94% of

the total lead body burden in adults is in the bone, compared

with about 73% in children. Lead may be mobilised from bone

in times of physiological stress, resulting in elevated blood lead

concentrations (USATSDR 2007).

Quantity of gamebird

meat consumed annually

and minimum number of

consumers in the UK

We used data from the UK National Diet and Nutrition

Survey (NDNS) programme to estimate the mean quantity of

gamebird meat eaten per year by people in the UK (NatCen

Social Research 2014). NDNS provides detailed quantitative

information on food intake and diet composition based on

surveys of a representative sample of UK citizens. We used

data from the core survey based on 4-day diet diary results

collected in the four survey years 2008/09-2011/12 (NatCen

Social Research 2014). We used data from the 4,071 subjects

for whom the diet was reported on all four diary survey days.

For each subject, we extracted the variable GameBirdsg, which

is the mean quantity in grams of gamebird meat consumed

per day. This is the only measure of game meat consumption

included in the NDNS. This variable was non-zero for 87

subjects. We coded the age of each subject as the midpoint of

the age class. For example, the midpoint of the age class coded

as 15 years was 15.5. The exception to this was the age class 1

year. The survey only covers children older than 1.5 years, so

this class midpoint was coded as 1.75 years.

To relate the proportion of subjects for which consumption of

gamebirdmeat was reported in the 4-day diary period to subject

age and sex, we fitted three asymptotic non-linear models:

P

g

= exp(A)

Model 1,

P

g

= exp(A – B exp(-C Age))

Model 2,

P

g

= exp(A

s

– B exp(-C Age))

Model 3,

where

P

g

is the proportion of subjects for whom gamebird

consumption is reported,

A

is a constant representing the

logarithm of the asymptotic proportion of subjects who eat

gamebird meat,

B

and

C

are constants and

Age

is the age class

midpoint in years. The parameter

A

was assumed not to differ

between males and females in Model 2, but to take different

values for the two sexes in Model 3. We calculated the binomial

probability of observing the recorded numbers of subjects of

each age and sex who did and did not consume gamebird meat

under eachof the threemodels. For eachmodel, weused a quasi-

Newton algorithm to obtain the parameter values at which the

log-likelihood of the data was maximised. We used bootstrap

resampling, with replacement, of the 4,071 subjects to obtain

confidence intervals of parameter estimates and derived values.

We performed 1,000 bootstrap replicates and took the bounds

defined by the central 950 bootstrap estimates to represent the

95% confidence limits.

Model 2, which assumes that the proportion of people who

consumed gamebird meat changed with age, but did not

differ by sex, had the lowest value of the Akaike Information

Criterion (AIC) (Model 1 AIC = 843.29, Model 2 AIC = 832.64,

Model 3 AIC = 833.95). Likelihood-ratio tests indicated a

highly statistically significant effect of age on the proportion

consuming gamebird meat (Model 2 vs Model 1, χ

2

(2)

= 14.65, P

= 0.0007), but no indication of a significant effect of sex (Model

3 vs Mode l 2, χ

2

(1)

= 0.69, P = 0.405). We therefore selected

Model 2 as providing an adequate description of the data. The

proportion of subjects consuming gamebird meat increased

most rapidly with advancing age over about the first 20 years,

being less than 1% for the youngest infants and about 3% for

adults (see Figure 1).

Rhys E. Green & Deborah J. Pain